Both surveys nailed those upsets exactly. Fortunately, reapportionment and redistricting gives us plenty of hard data to crunch in 2021 — and there's no point in rating House races until we know what the lines are going to look like in state to state. Rep Lean Says one GOP consultant, "In 2018, Dems were seen as normal. Dem This wasn't just the case in heavily blue-collar districts, but high-college suburbs as well, where Trump's 2020 vote totals far outpaced his 2016 totals. 25. And, FiveThirtyEight had Democrats leading the House ballot by 7.3 points; they won it by 3.1 points. As of November 2, 2020 The final 2020 House forecast from The Cook Political Report. 16 Ind, 0 RT @amyewalter: I know we don’t really do holiday parties these days, if you’re looking to drop some awesome political knowledge and trivia…, The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037 (202) 739-8525 That initial instinct proved to be correct. Throughout 2020, both parties' House campaign committees (the DCCC and NRCC), as well as their affiliated Super PACs (House Majority PAC and Congressional Leadership Fund), invested tens of millions of dollars on hundreds of district-level surveys — and those polls told an even more consistent story of GOP woes than they told in 2018. Trump won 74 million votes, unquestionably driving out millions of low-propensity, right-leaning voters who would otherwise never turn out to vote for a more conventional down-ballot Republican in a midterm or off-year election. Van Duyne ended up beating Valenzuela, who ran as the progressive in the Democratic primary, by a point - even though non-whites are now a majority in the suburban Dallas seat and Biden carried the district at the top of the ticket. : Cook subscribers can read the analysis. And yet, Republicans shattered our and others' expectations, gaining at least 11 seats. Click on bars to see solid seats breakdown, The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037, FL-26 Dem One Democratic consultant told us: "Polling used to be something that helped ‘guide’ our decision making and the conversation, but now we’ve become addicted to it and have put too much faith in its abilities. 0 However, there were likely far more voters who entered the final week undecided on their congressional choice than their choice for president. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");t&&(["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); “House Judiciary Committee Chair Jerry Nadler intends to reissue a subpoena for former White House Counsel Don McGahn’s testimony next year, confirming that Democrats intend to press ahead with its long legal battle to compel testimony from a star witness in special counsel Robert Mueller’s obstruction of justice investigation of President Trump,” Politico reports. Copyright © 2018 by Cook Political Report. For example, neither party spent a dime in South Texas, where Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (TX-15) hung on by just three points. Although 2020's polling errors weren't historically unprecedented in size, the industry as a whole (but especially traditional telephone pollsters) is headed for upheaval. Rep : Early in each election cycle, the most important data point — and often the only one available — is the result of the previous election. But he fought to a near-tie by playing up his war against Spectrum, a much-loathed cable and internet provider in Upstate New York and his support for a local flatware manufacturer. August 30, 2019 @Redistrict. All Rights Reserved. • This kind of analysis will undoubtedly lead to changes in the way pollsters approach future races, and perhaps some innovative methodologies that could be road-tested in 2021's off-year elections. New at @CookPolitical: 12 late-breaking House rating changes, all but one in Democrats’ direction. With amazing consistency, Republican candidates outperformed private surveys by mid-single digits. In September, an 1892 Polling survey for the NRCC showed Republican Maria Elvira Salazar ahead of Rep. Donna Shalala (FL-27) 46 percent to 43 percent. In 2018, Democrats ran up the score by recruiting political outsiders, especially women with national security backgrounds, to challenge GOP "insiders." Cook generally starts by favoring incumbents and then as candidates are declared, polls come out and fundraising numbers are released they shift the results. There is clearly danger in putting too much faith in the same methods parties have used for years, and there also may be a risk of overcorrecting for recent mistakes. After all, a minuscule number of House Democrats actually identify as "democratic socialists" or have advocated reducing police funding. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 House forecast. So, what happened? But in hindsight, our March House ratings, which had 20 Democrats and just five Republicans in Toss Up, wound up being more accurate than our final pre-election ratings, which had 17 Republicans and nine Democrats in that category. And, they won. Amid the pandemic, we visited fewer districts and personally met with fewer candidates than we typically do. Cook Political Report shifted more congressional races to the left, predicting that 2020 could be an even better year for Democrats than the 2018 "blue wave." Republicans won all 27 House races the Cook Political Report rated as “toss-ups” in its 2020 election analysis, in addition to picking up seven of … Dem An independent online political newsletter has changed its status on 20 races for the House of Representatives, saying Friday that they were all improving in the direction of Democrats. He took 47 percent, two points better than Biden's 45 percent. In its final forecast for Tuesday's election, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report has shifted eight additional House seats toward Democrats and projected on Monday that the party would expand its majority in the chamber by 10 to 15. After the latest update from Kern County, Valadao’s lead of 2,644 votes in the race shrank on Friday to 1,618 votes.The number of votes left to count from Fresno, Kern, Kings, and Tulare counties has dwindled, the lead was enough for Dave Wasserman, U.S. House editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report and NBC News contributor to call the race. • Our Electoral and Senate ratings generally performed well, with every race at least "leaning" to one party breaking that direction and Toss Ups breaking to the GOP — save for Georgia, where Joe Biden prevailed and both Senate races are in runoffs. 0 Meanwhile, of the 29 House Republican freshmen from 2018, only one wasn't a man and only one wasn't white. Why were the polls so consistently biased towards Democrats? With the benefit of a month to reflect, here are five takeaways from 2020's surprises and three lessons for how we might recalibrate our approach for the next cycle. 3 And, many paid the price. Meanwhile, of the 29 House Republican freshmen from 2018, only one wasn't a man and only one wasn't white. These seats are not considered competitive at this point, but have the potential to become engaged. You can also view this forecast as … Herrera Beutler. Why? Very few non-incumbent Democrats ran ahead of Biden in their districts, but one was Cameron Webb (VA-05), who touted support from sheriffs in his ads and flipped the script by accusing his GOP opponent of voting to cut police funding. But in some respects, the dynamics driving House races were more similar to four years ago than 2018, when Democrats triumphed. October 29: Mississippi moves from Safe to Likely Republican. And what lessons can we draw for 2022? The consensus of hundreds of pre-election polls conducted for both parties was that House Democrats were the ones on offense. 14 But Republicans never followed through on their early insistence they would spend in Scranton against Rep. Matt Cartwright (PA-08) and abandoned the race against Rep. Lauren Underwood (IL-14) after their least preferred candidate won the GOP primary. The strongest evidence against a late surge might be the results of Washington's August top-two primary, which boded much better for Republicans than 2018's results and, in retrospect, might have been an overlooked clue. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report made its final House forecast Monday, a day before the Nov. 3 elections, indicating that a combination of factors … Although Valenzuela's ads played up her advocacy of school safety on the school board, the damage was too much to overcome. These are the most competitive; either party has a good chance of winning. Both parties invested accordingly, but the down-ballot anti-Trump "suburban revolt" never materialized on Election Night. It's clear that we and others in our frenzied, polling-addicted sphere misjudged the down-ballot environment more than in any cycle in recent memory and must assess the polls' (and our own) blind spots before moving on. The final FiveThirtyEight average pegged Biden's lead at 8.4 points; he won the popular vote by 4.5 points. Democrats’ odds in the race for control of the House are seeing yet another uptick, according to a new analysis from the Cook Political Report.. Mucarsel-Powell, WA-03 In fact, had Democrats performed exactly five points better on the margin in all 435 districts, every race in our "lean" and "likely" columns would have been correct, Democrats would have won 11 of the 27 Toss Ups, and they would have gained seven seats overall. In 2019, we started out with the presumption that Democrats were in a decent position to retain the majority, but had benefited from plenty of casual Trump voters not showing up in the midterms and stood to lose a few seats as those voters reentered the fold. To be fair, no one saw a close race in TX-15 coming. Cook Report shifts 12 House races, all but one toward Democrats By Joseph Choi - 10/21/20 10:43 AM EDT 315 The Cook Political Report on … 0 “District-level polls are full of danger signs for Trump,” David Wasserman, the … • Dem Personally I expect these numbers to shift a bit in the Republicans favor even if 2020 is an otherwise good year for Dems. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast. Of the 13 Republicans who flipped Democratic-held seats in 2020, all were women and/or minorities. A New York judge is wading through the electoral “errors and delays” that have marred the race between Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) and former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R), one of the last remaining uncalled races in the country, the Syracuse Post-Standard reports. The DCCC/HMP spent a combined $9.8 million on these two races. If we had picked one Democrat to have the best chance to survive out of the Toss Up column, it probably wouldn't be Rep. Anthony Brindisi (NY-22), who sits in a district Trump carried handily twice. It now sees Democrats gaining between five and 15 seats in the 2020 election. The Cook Political Report's 2020 House District Databook. Some analysts hypothesize that polls weren't way off so much as there was a late movement towards Republicans that polls didn't pick up. It categorizes all congressional districts not designated as "safe" in that map as of the time specified below the table. But the more polls we saw, the less accurate our forecast became. United States interactive 2020 House Cook Political Report forecast [CDATA[// >. The Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce our 2020 House district databook, a one-stop shop for statistics on demographics and recent election results in all 435 congressional districts. The Cook Political Report; Ratings; House HOUSE 2020 House Race Ratings Nov 2, 2020 PDF Document. To be sure, there were a few outlier polls that got it right. Dem Had Republicans detected the true down-ballot dynamics, they could have won the House back. Likely The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037, Five Takeaways From Our 2020 House Forecast — and Three Resolutions for 2021 and Beyond. The most credible theory might be one articulated by analyst David Shor: that for years, there's been a rising correlation between low levels of social and institutional trust, higher support for President Trump, and survey non-response. 1 In January, there will be nine "Biden Republicans" and at most seven "Trump Democrats.". Ind, 9 • • But Republicans turned the tables in 2020, and it worked. Dave Wasserman, Cook's House editor, tweeted: "I can’t recall the last time we moved so many races at once, let alone in the same direction." The top three most expensive House races of 2020 — in terms of both candidate and outside spending — were California's 25th District ($37.9 million), New Mexico's 2nd District ($36.7 million) and Texas's 22nd District ($34.1 million), according to the Center for Responsive Politics. We keep missing people who end up turning out to vote.". In the Cook report… Cook Political Report: “There have only been three federal elections in the last 100 years decided by fewer than 20 votes…But in an insult to injury for House Democrats, who have already lost a dozen incumbents to the GOP, Democrats are currently trailing by a scant six votes in Iowa’s 2nd CD and 12 votes in New York’s 22nd CD as both races head for lengthy legal fights.” But after the rise of AOC, the primaries and 'defund the police,' it was easier to paint them as radical.". The Cook Political Report has updated its outlook for 12 House races. But in the House, Republicans nearly swept the 27 races in our Toss Up column and won seven races in our "Lean" and "Likely" Democrat columns. Three are of Cuban ancestry, two were born in South Korea and one was born in Ukraine — allowing them to personalize an anti-socialism message. Most chose to stay on "offense" on healthcare and COVID in their messaging. These included some big upsets: Republicans held every vulnerable seat in Texas, picked up four Biden/Clinton-won seats in California and even picked up two Miami area seats Clinton had carried by more than 15 points in 2016. 0 It will require discipline to stick to these fundamentals when polls start to drown everything else out. Otherwise, 25 of the 27 Toss Ups broke to the GOP. Dem Had all Democrats outperformed by that much, they would have gained a dozen seats. Rep 2 Our approach to rating races in 2020 was the same as in the past: we construct our analysis based on recent election results and trends, publicly available polling and fundraising data, and hundreds of off-the-record conversations with candidates, party committees, outside groups, pollsters, consultants and state-based journalists. Democrats' genuinely progressive challengers fared the worst. In 2018, Democrats ran up the score by recruiting political outsiders, especially women with national security backgrounds, to challenge GOP "insiders." The … Republicans Didn't Spend Significantly in 10 Races They Narrowly Lost. Relatively few Democratic challengers aired ads inoculating themselves against these attacks. Had they invested more, we would have been likelier to change our rating. And, COVID-19 likely exacerbated this partisan non-response bias this year. But Trump's presence atop the ballot did something else as well. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017 ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018 ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2020 Quarterly reports," accessed September 21, 2020 The Parties Spent $195 Million on 30 Races that Weren't That Close,